Global Migration & Politics
Analysis and commentary on the politics of the Middle East, of the power games that defines the region, and the economic, religious and ethnic problems the region is often facing.

The Russian wind blows mildly in Ankara’s direction

Recently, Great Visit to Turkey by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Representative, Aleksandr Dugin. During the meeting, Dugin stated that it was his personal profit that Turkey managed to ward off the failed military coup in July. Are we witnessing a new orientation towards Moscow in the face of growing tensions between Ankara, the EU, NATO and Washington. This probably is enough to make the many a Western observers nervous.

Dugin had simply informed the Turkish authorities about “some unusual activities” in the military on the day before the coup attempt, whereby President Recep Tayyip Erdogan managed to ward off the coup. If anyone in Ankara was accused of why and from which Dugin had such information about internal Turkish military conditions, history does not matter.

Dugin also stated that the entire military coup attempt was due to Turkey’s new interest in Russia. He elaborated on this because, as the EU was not interested in Turkey as a member country, Turkey could equally turn to Russia, which is open arms. Such a statement is interesting because it comes from Dugin, many of which are considered to be Putin’s brain and mainstreaming of Russian foreign policy in these years.

And for this reason, the West should pay close attention to this growing relationship between Russia and Turkey.

Common Turkish and Russian footsteps

Even though the two countries are far from always in foreign affairs, they have a common ground in relation to the religious leader. Fethullah Gülen . Both countries have a particularly pronounced contempt for the Gülen movement. Russia has long considered the movement as a dangerous group and had already closed all Gülen schools in Russia in 2014 and banned all religious movements that might associate with the Gülen movement.

Dugin also stated that the entire military coup attempt was due to Turkey’s new interest in Russia. He elaborated on this because, as the EU was not interested in Turkey as a member country, Turkey could equally turn to Russia, which is open arms. Such a statement is interesting because it comes from Dugin, many of which are considered to be Putin’s brain and the main stratag of Russian foreign policy in these years.

In Turkey, the official position has always been that Fethullah Gülen was behind the coup attempt. For the same reason, Turkey has wished to have Gülen handed over from the United States, which, in great turmoil and annoyance to Turkey, is still hesitant to comply with this wish.

Too much ailment and skew with the United States

Turkey has a fairly strained relationship with the United States at the time.

Partly because of the Turkish side’s view of the lack of understanding of the American team against the Turkish response to coup attempting – the United States has not yet delivered Gülen to prosecution in Turkey, is seen as a Turkish-like act as a definite mockery against the country.

Secondly, there is a fundamental and profound disagreement between the two NATO countries about the attitude of the Kurds in the region. The great Gordian knot in the US-Turkey relationship. For the United States, finance and train Kurdish parties and movements, which Turkey regards as terrorist groups. It all goes for a somewhat strained affair between the two countries.

Come to Mother Russia

It makes it all the more tempting to throw in the arms of Russia, as opposed to Turkey, Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad supports, but, in turn, demonstrates all the caring and caring man’s good faith as President of Turkey. stand still in the middle of all the chaos one’s country is in both the domestic and foreign front.

Turkey has a fairly strained relationship with the United States at the time. It makes it all the more tempting to throw in the arms of Russia.

Just a few weeks ago, Erdogan had to – quite like I previously predicted – announce that the state of emergency in the country would be extended by perhaps up to one year’s duration. There was hardly anyone behind it. Outside politics, Erdogan has a similar abundance of troops in Syria and Iraq, who are more busy keeping track of Kurdish groups and their movements in the area than to fight IS. In other words, it is not surprising that Turkey feels tempted to get warmed by the swollen Russian bosom.

A little scratch in the paint – well we have Gülen as a scapegoat

The Turkish-Russian relationship was put to a test in November 2015, as it Turkish Air Force shot a Russian war plan down at the Syrian border. There was cold air between the countries until Erdogan – in very unfamiliar style – after seven months of silence and ice on the telephone line between Ankara and Moscow – apologized to Russia’s Putin. This handset from the Turkish side is undoubtedly both economically and politically based. After the shooting of the Russian war plan, Russia imposed economic sanctions against Turkey. Russian tourism in Turkey fell instantly with 98.7 percent, as Turkish construction and construction companies in Russia lost orders for millions.

Economic assessments have led to the loss of nine billion dollars (60 billion dollars) in Turkish economy as a result of the shooting of the Russian aircraft. In other words, it is a rather expensive economic affair to go out with Putin’s Russia.

In the wake of the Turkish apology, the first conspiracy theories were immediately brought to torves. These suggested that the Turkish pilot in question, who had shot the Russian plane down, should of course have been Gülen supporter and that the purpose of the shooting had been to damage the relationship between the two countries alone. And although nothing seemed to support that claim, it was nevertheless a very convenient one of the kind. And so, peace and peace continued between Ankara and Moscow.

What about Turkish foreign policy?

What this renewed warm relationship in the longer term will mean for Turkish foreign policy, time will show. Shortly after the Turkish apology, Moscow reported in plain Russian style that it had a clear expectation that Turkey would now reconsider its policy in relation to both Iraq and Syria.

That’s probably doubtful. To lean completely across Russia and turn the West back, would be a misdemeanor of Erdogan. And while the man seems to have quite grandiose thoughts about his own worth and position, it’s probably going to go longer than good. If he turns the West back seriously, he will not be regarded as anything but a new member of the “authoritarian leadership club”, including Syria, Russia and Saudi Arabia as active members. And, as is well known, NATO membership is also about to take care of. There is also nothing in Turkish foreign policy that currently suggests a definite political reorientation.

Erdogan has shot himself to the corner – and could use a lifeline

One might rather talk about Erdogan instead having shot himself to the corner. As mentioned, the President has a particularly strained relationship with the United States, but also to NATO and the EU. He child kisses hearty with Saudi Arabia , but he can not use it for something particularly strategic.

The thing is that Erdogan is quite undesirable in both Iraq and Syria. Back is Russia, which has clearly shown that Turkish mistakes are paid at box 1, and with great financial losses to follow. In other words, Erdogan can not feel too sure about the Russian declaration of love. The question now is how Turkey is coming out of this strategic supperas.

If President Erdogan was in a quiz program, he should consider using a lifeline now.

Image Source: http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/4188

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