Global Migration & Politics
Analysis and commentary on the politics of the Middle East, of the power games that defines the region, and the economic, religious and ethnic problems the region is often facing.

When IS has been fought – what happens then

The combined and coordinated action against Islamic State (IS) seems to carry fruit. Thus, there are reports that IS is losing the grip of its stronghold in Mosul, Iraq. IS is similar under great pressure in Syria. In Iraq, we have begun to weather morning air, and already discuss current time, what should happen when IS is fought and disappeared from the site.

The city of Mosul has been under the control of IS since June 2014. As Mosul’s liberation is approaching, there are increasingly stories in circulation that a new power struggle about Mosul in Ninevah province is already under way.

An ethnic, religious and political cloth blanket

This power struggle will be of even greater complexity with various ethnic and religious minority groups, which at one and the same time will both be </ em> and constitute </ em> a danger to a possible peace in the region. The province is home to Kurds, Arabs of both Sunni and Shia observance, Christian, Saber, Yazidier and Shabaks. Voila, it can hardly be more complex. “ A can of worms “, as it is called in English, is probably the most comprehensive term for this ethnic and religious blanket. And a future scenario about the power struggle with so many ethnic and religious actors with their own agenda can make the most hardcore war strategist somewhat pale about his nose.

Kurdish power ambitions

Precisely because of the presence of so many groups that do not want to live together, it immediately makes sense to discuss the issue of division of the region to 6-8 smaller provinces to accommodate the various ethnic and religious interests. Such discussions are on the drawing board at this time.

The Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is in a hurry to keep up with the Kurdish threat from three sides: the Kurds in Syria, the Kurds in Iraq and the Kurds from the Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region. There are many balls to have in the air, and may even give the half-paranoid headmaster a little sweat on the upper lip.

But there is another, more general and unspoken component in this dangerous cocktail; Kurds outside Mosul and Ninevah region – namely Kurds from the autonomous Kurdish region of Nordirak. Just this player is not very excited either in the government-controlled Iraq or in Turkey. In Iraq, you look at the Kurdish Pershermagas help in the fight against IS with some skepticism. This is due to the fear that the Kurdish self-government will eventually annex the Kurdish areas of Ninevah Province. The request for an enrollment is part of Kurdish ambitions about demographic changes in the area and expansion of the Kurdish area. And contrary to the Iraqi desire to maintain the region under Iraqi control.

The Great Kurdish Threat to Turkey

For the same reason, Turkey is similarly skeptical to the Kurdish autonomy area and, in particular, this power and expansion dream. Viewed with Turkish eyes, Kurdish ambitions pose a threat to Turkish interests to a very special extent.

In general, the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is quite busy with controlling the Kurdish threat from three sides: the Kurds in Syria, the Kurds in Iraq and the Kurds from the Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region. There are many balls to have in the air, and may even give the half-paranoid head of state a little sweat on the upper lip.

Turkey, Iraq and Syria are linked

In previous blog posts featured Turkish foreign policy and Turkey’s interest in Syria and Iraq. President Erdogan has stated that one can not discuss a peace solution for Syria without taking into account Turkish national interests . Regardless of what the other man had to say about the man and his grandiose tendencies, he has – strangely enough – right. For Turkey’s historical, ethnic and political threads, interfere with Syria’s existence. The same goes for the relationship between Turkey and Iraq. And also for the relationship between Syria and Iraq.

They are all interwoven each other with their ethnic groups, including the Kurds, across national borders. You can therefore not talk about a solution for Syria without talking about a solution to Iraq. And a solution for the two countries requires that Turkish interests be taken care of. The latter is, first of all, that the Kurdish desire for greater and more autonomy is not met.

IS is the nightmare of our time, but that player can be combated and will be fought. In order to secure peace after IS ‘finally, you must have peace strategies ready; including getting collaborators and alliances already in place. There is no time to relate to it once the IS is chased on the gate. If it is not done now, you risk the region becoming even worse (you would hardly believe it possible) acts of war and organs of violence.

For the same reason, it is naive to believe that the two countries will flourish, peace will return and growth will come if only the efforts of the Allied forces can break down IS and chase the crazy death bug on the gate. The truth is that when, and not if, IS loses power in Iraq – presumably within a short period of time – is a queue of new players in line to fight for power.

The Art of Peace would

If the solution lies in the division of the province into 6-8 smaller provinces, the big question is.

In order to secure peace after IS ‘finally, you must have peace strategies ready; including getting collaborators and alliances already in place. There is no time to relate to it once the IS is chased on the gate. If it does not happen now, it is likely that the region will be even worse (you would hardly believe it possible) acts of war and organs of violence.

And while the thought may sound profane with due regard to the many different ethnic and religious groupings, there is no guarantee of peace with such a division. Power struggles and territorial enlargement ambitions have always existed, independent of boundaries. Peace will probably only come the day it can actually pay off for the many players wanting it, unconditional and independent of its own political agendas.

Image Source: Wikimedia Commons: Mississippians, Iraqi Army partner to protect Q-West water supply DVIDS220291.jpg. https://www.dvidshub.net/image/220291

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